[ Update: Apple today, 27 Jan 2010, launched the iPad! Most of my predictions were spot on! Check it out. http://www.apple.com/ipad/ ]
Ever since the #iPhone launch (and the death of the Newton), I've been convinced #Apple would re-enter the small computing platform.. Lessons from the Newton underscored the need to enter at the right time, with the right approach/technology and when the market (demand) was likely to support the cost of developing such a device.
That time is here, now.
Everyone who is an Apple fan (like myself) KNEW the iPhone signaled the time was *almost* here. The touch interface proved you could get rid of the physical keyboard. Faster and larger (capacity) flash memory meant you could compute on the go. Improvements in syncing and cloud apps means you don't need to necessarily have bloatware on each device in order to get work/things done. And the introduction of the Apple app store as a way to deliver software for those tasks that still demand specific coding --which was also a way to monetize development for entrepreneurs and developers.
Apple's also learned the lessons of pricing-- that a premium device with the functionality could sell: the orig iPhone 2G $600 cost.
Why the Market is Perfect for an Apple iTablet:
Apple learned that even fan boys (and girls) are still price sensitive-- especially if you clothesline the early adopters with a $200+ price drop a few weeks after a product introduction. The current recession proves that while people are price sensitive, quality, convenience and innovation always sell. And Apple knows that eBooks (and Amazon's #Kindle) prove people want to buy quality reading material in electronic format. The current market demand (for netbooks and calls for an Apple version from the public and road warriors) establishes that it's not too much of a risk for Apple to get into the market-- provided Apple can improve upon this already great computing machine that is the iPhone. (BTW, the Kindle is a great concept, has good features, but is a hideous looking device. It's very Newton-like in it's look and interface. When Apple announces their new iTablet device, Kindle's popularity should decline-- unless Amazon gives the device away, imo. )
So, the issues (for me) as an average consumer (not you high-paid types) are:
- PRICE. It needs to be more and do more than an iPhone but not as much as a laptop. If the #iTablet does more than a laptop, no one will buy laptops anymore. This suggests the price (and power) needs to be under $850 market range.
- SYNCING. There has to be a way to sync your iTablet generated data, info, contacts, calendar with SOMETHING. But it can't REQUIRE a computer, or the iTablet risks becoming a luxury/status symbol. I bet Apple is trying to figure a way to sync data w/ Goggle cloud apps and MobileMe as way to exist online, without requiring you have a computer at home (or office). I bet Apple develops some kind of suite of Apple cloud apps via MobileMe that lets you work on your iTablet stuff via computer in case your iTablet is being used by your significant other, being repaired, lost, etc. If the iTablet device and all it's data is useless and unusable without the tablet, then the device isn't as valuable. Plus, there is a sizable part of existing Apple users that want that info to sync with their existing Apple computers (for a variety of reasons). This syncing with legacy apps and hardware is probably the challenge-- not upsizing the iPhone to Tablet / Netbook size.
So, I imagine the hard part is NOT figuring out the hardware -- they already have that in the iPhone figured out (more or less). The problem is probably developing the software and syncing for BOTH legacy computers and working in the cloud. This means, in some way, Apple is also going after Google cloud apps and Microsoft.
- STORAGE Size. Storage will probably be on a flash drive or some new ultra small solid state drive (?) (Nah, SS might be too $$$. But a SS drive might be an upgrade option..) This is why the syncing aspect is so critical: moving your content back and forth-- if only for back up purposes and printing (when needed.) The utility of an iTablet also depends on the device's storage capacity. 64 gig is too small (if it includes music and movies) -- even though we know Apple has already figured out a way to get the iPhone OS onto a device as small as 4gig. But with more features, GPS etc., that baseline hard drive size for the iTablet has to be in the 16gig range (I am guessing.) So, users need space to add apps, music, video, and documents they create-- unless, all new work is stored in the cloud. I don't see "cloud-only" storage being viable initially.
- APPS. So if Apple adopts a cloud app strategy, then they have to port some modicum of their basic core apps to a new platform. THAT IS WHERE THE DELAY in the release date stems (in my opinion.) We know the App Store works-- but how do you port a great app like Pages, iMovie and the more power/ feature rich apps for word processing, number crunching to FIT on a flash drive?
Also, Apple has to develop a way for people to do some baseline level of the Core Apple apps: word processing, GarageBand, iMovie, Pages, Numbers, etc. All these apps need to be in the cloud or need some paired down, but acceptable version that is useable on the iTablet. Otherwise, you have a very expensive iPod with a larger screen. I'm not sure that a merely bigger iPod is worth $850. It's just not. (Because you know Apple won't sell the new device for less than $650.) $650 for a BIG iPod won't sell either. So the iTablet HAS TO DO MORE (than the iPhone re: regular computing.)
- PRINTING & BACKUP. The iTablet (in my opinion) will have bluetooth or will do things via wiFi. WiFi printing is already solved. But you need a way to transfer files from your iTablet to another device if you are not at your home-base where everything is already wiFi enabled. Again, this is where the cloud comes in, so you can sign on (from any location in the world) and retrieve your data, even print it as necessary. Backup can be done via wifi. We already know we can transfer files that way. Time Machine and other Apple innovations were testing grounds for this next iTablet step.
We don't know what the name will be for this larger version of the iTouch. Let's hope it's not a lame name, like iTablet. (I am using "iTablet" because I have no doubt it will do MORE than the current crop of netbooks. It will be a game changer -- I hope.)
I am not a computer person.. just an architect. (I am not affiliated with Apple nor any of its partners.) But I AM an Apple customer (since the 512K Mac) who's seen that these are the logical steps for a company that clearly has the intellectual ability to take such steps. However, if the features are on the slim side, and the price is over $650, it won't sell. Might as well get a MacBook Air.
ZDnet on the Apple netbook - http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=21753
TUAW on Apple Netbook Chips - http://www.tuaw.com/2009/07/15/apple-will-design-its-own-tablet-mac-chips/
Tech Crunch via Apple Netbook Rumors - http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/12/30/large-form-ipod-touch-to-launch-in-fall-09/
Apple Insider on the Netbook rumors - http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/07/24/apples_much_anticipated_tablet_...
Apple, send me a test iTablet. ;-)
p.s. buy Apple stock now. Dec 09 it was $79. Now, apple stock is at $159. It's only gonna go up come Dec 2009.
[ Update: as of 27 Jan 2010, Apple stock price was $207, and had been as high as $210 earlier in the week. ]
©S.Grant 27 July 2009
revised 27 January 2010
